Tungsten prices are already quite easily explained by China restricting exports and reducing production, existing wars consuming munitions, and Western governments rebuilding stockpiles. There's no need to point to some ominous new conflict. We've got more than enough.
All in all, some very weak evidence on show here, such as pointing to Tasmania’s Dolphin mine reopening as a supposed signal. It did not suddenly reopen because some spooky insiders sensed an imminent war. The mine's redevelopment was financed in 2021 and commercial production began in 2023, which was itself responding to Chinese supply concentration and the favourable economic situation at the time.
And instead of trying to provoke China into actual war with an american outpost you built there (because this just might be your Great Plan), you would do better to develop your own economy (the real one, and not the trillions from your financial fantasy land). And stop oppressing the rest of the planet by the way, now that we are talking
He-he.. Can you even roughly compare the scale, the violence, lack of any connection to the places bombed besides GREED?
Of course not, and you know that.
Of the top 10 bloodiest wars in human history, 4 were fought by China. Only two were fought by the US and they were both world wars in which is US could not be described as anything but a "good" actor. Of those Chinese wars, the Taiping rebellion killed more people alone than America has in 250 years of war, and that happened while the US existed.
No country is a saint, and China is capable of extreme violence and brutality. Yes I can compare the scale and violence; China does not come out looking great when I do.
All states are born in violence and will use it to maintain their power and further their goals. China is an ancient and inherently powerful country which was committing atrocities before the US even existed. It has geopolitical ambitions and will use the tools at its disposal to achieve them.
You mix today's China with imperial China, ignore the role the west played in China wars..
You ignore the recent Libya, Syria, Venezuela, Ucraine (hadn't it been for you, there would be no war), Iraq, Syria, and then the less recent ones. You devastated Iran on base of a hypothesis, a country at the other side of the globe.
No, it is you who start wars today, sure of your impunity as your country leaders like to brag, sure that technology will always keep you safe no matter what you do. There is no other country which has 700 military bases around the world (did you ask what the people there think about your bases?), claiming "it is not an empire", when of course it is.
No, it is definitely you who are the agressor, not China, geopolitics or not.
> You mix today's China with imperial China, ignore the role the west played in China wars..
Shall I find the stats on how many people died during the Cultural Revolution and Great Leap Forward, or would you accuse me of spouting capitalist propaganda?
> Ucraine (hadn't it been for you, there would be no war)
LMAO good luck with that take - Putin is just a misunderstood teddy bear, bombing power plants and heating infrastructure in the winter is self-defense!
Note that you speak, here and in the post before, of internal wars, these were not wars of expansion (as far as I know), while yours definitely are (placing your bases is just the most prominent sign of this, subservience of your "allies" is another, and there is more of course).
As to Ukraine: had the west respected the Minsk agreements, addressing the very real Russia's security concerns, giving an autonomy, even limited, to Donbass (language, education, UN forces for example instead of the nationalists goons kidnapping and murdering "traitors"), there would be no war, and Ukraine, except Crimea, would remain one political entity.
This is just a fact, there was no interest whatsoever even for Putin to start a war, even given the exaggerated estimate of Russia's military capabilities, despite of all the "imperial ambitions" which your propaganda was "seeing". Simply because of the very close ties between the Russian people and Ucranians (there are millions and millions of "mixed" families, plenty of Russian people have relatives in Ukraine and vice versa, a lot of Ukranians living in Russia and vice versa, large part of Ukranians still speak between themselves in Russian, even today, the war would ruin much of it, as it indeed did, all that your propaganda "did not see").
It is not "greatest hits", it is simply a view much closer to truth than the western (US) version of events.
But most counterarguments I have ever seen on HN is the "Russian troll" labels, bans and shadow bans of various sorts, and bad faith comments from "dang" to which then there is no possibility to reply.
> It is not "greatest hits", it is simply a view much closer to truth than the western (US) version of events.
No, it is the political equivalent of Viagra-advertising copypastas that litter unmaintained Blogspot and Wordpress blogs. The lowest tier of garbage. Why do you expect anyone to take this seriously? Nobody takes seriously Hitler's speeches about how everyone was taking advantage of Germany, and mistreating Germans, and how Germany was "forced" to wage a "defensive war".
Because China has an obvious strategic interest in exploiting its dominance of a critical supply chain. The controls were introduced under its dual-use export regime, giving China leverage in the already very public trade and technology confrontation with the West.
None of that is evidence that China possesses secret knowledge of some imminent new war - as I stated, there's more than enough current wars. You have taken one of the known causes of rising tungsten prices, asked “why?”, and treated your preferred answer as though it had been demonstrated. A state using a strategic resource strategically is not a mysterious signal, it is policy happening in plain sight.
There's far more luminous signals for any impending Chinese (or, indeed, other) militarism than tungsten.
Tungsten prices are already quite easily explained by China restricting exports and reducing production, existing wars consuming munitions, and Western governments rebuilding stockpiles. There's no need to point to some ominous new conflict. We've got more than enough.
All in all, some very weak evidence on show here, such as pointing to Tasmania’s Dolphin mine reopening as a supposed signal. It did not suddenly reopen because some spooky insiders sensed an imminent war. The mine's redevelopment was financed in 2021 and commercial production began in 2023, which was itself responding to Chinese supply concentration and the favourable economic situation at the time.
> Tungsten prices are already quite easily explained by China restricting exports and reducing production
And why, pray tell, would China restrict the production and export of tungsten, along with many other critical dual-use metals and minerals?
It is not China who starts wars all over the globe, it is you.
Sorry, it feels so obvious. But somehow needs to be repeated every time.
(And if China will start a war, it would be because you tried too much to undo the former status quo; Taiwan, according to UN, is China.)
Lol and the Taiwanese themselves have no say in it? Fuckk offfff Chinese bot
Go steal some intellectual property that's all you seem capable of
China is still technically at war with Taiwan.
Taiwan is still "technically" a part of China.
And instead of trying to provoke China into actual war with an american outpost you built there (because this just might be your Great Plan), you would do better to develop your own economy (the real one, and not the trillions from your financial fantasy land). And stop oppressing the rest of the planet by the way, now that we are talking
Tell that to the people of the Philippines, Tibet, and Taiwan
He-he.. Can you even roughly compare the scale, the violence, lack of any connection to the places bombed besides GREED? Of course not, and you know that.
Of the top 10 bloodiest wars in human history, 4 were fought by China. Only two were fought by the US and they were both world wars in which is US could not be described as anything but a "good" actor. Of those Chinese wars, the Taiping rebellion killed more people alone than America has in 250 years of war, and that happened while the US existed.
No country is a saint, and China is capable of extreme violence and brutality. Yes I can compare the scale and violence; China does not come out looking great when I do.
All states are born in violence and will use it to maintain their power and further their goals. China is an ancient and inherently powerful country which was committing atrocities before the US even existed. It has geopolitical ambitions and will use the tools at its disposal to achieve them.
You mix today's China with imperial China, ignore the role the west played in China wars..
You ignore the recent Libya, Syria, Venezuela, Ucraine (hadn't it been for you, there would be no war), Iraq, Syria, and then the less recent ones. You devastated Iran on base of a hypothesis, a country at the other side of the globe.
No, it is you who start wars today, sure of your impunity as your country leaders like to brag, sure that technology will always keep you safe no matter what you do. There is no other country which has 700 military bases around the world (did you ask what the people there think about your bases?), claiming "it is not an empire", when of course it is.
No, it is definitely you who are the agressor, not China, geopolitics or not.
> You mix today's China with imperial China, ignore the role the west played in China wars..
Shall I find the stats on how many people died during the Cultural Revolution and Great Leap Forward, or would you accuse me of spouting capitalist propaganda?
> Ucraine (hadn't it been for you, there would be no war)
LMAO good luck with that take - Putin is just a misunderstood teddy bear, bombing power plants and heating infrastructure in the winter is self-defense!
Note that you speak, here and in the post before, of internal wars, these were not wars of expansion (as far as I know), while yours definitely are (placing your bases is just the most prominent sign of this, subservience of your "allies" is another, and there is more of course).
As to Ukraine: had the west respected the Minsk agreements, addressing the very real Russia's security concerns, giving an autonomy, even limited, to Donbass (language, education, UN forces for example instead of the nationalists goons kidnapping and murdering "traitors"), there would be no war, and Ukraine, except Crimea, would remain one political entity. This is just a fact, there was no interest whatsoever even for Putin to start a war, even given the exaggerated estimate of Russia's military capabilities, despite of all the "imperial ambitions" which your propaganda was "seeing". Simply because of the very close ties between the Russian people and Ucranians (there are millions and millions of "mixed" families, plenty of Russian people have relatives in Ukraine and vice versa, a lot of Ukranians living in Russia and vice versa, large part of Ukranians still speak between themselves in Russian, even today, the war would ruin much of it, as it indeed did, all that your propaganda "did not see").
This greatests hits compilation of a Russian troll factory has become awfully stale.
It is not "greatest hits", it is simply a view much closer to truth than the western (US) version of events.
But most counterarguments I have ever seen on HN is the "Russian troll" labels, bans and shadow bans of various sorts, and bad faith comments from "dang" to which then there is no possibility to reply.
That's how things stand.
No, it is the political equivalent of Viagra-advertising copypastas that litter unmaintained Blogspot and Wordpress blogs. The lowest tier of garbage. Why do you expect anyone to take this seriously? Nobody takes seriously Hitler's speeches about how everyone was taking advantage of Germany, and mistreating Germans, and how Germany was "forced" to wage a "defensive war".
Cannot reply to your last comment, so I reply here:
Nonsense.
PRC export tit/tat vs west export controls.
Because China has an obvious strategic interest in exploiting its dominance of a critical supply chain. The controls were introduced under its dual-use export regime, giving China leverage in the already very public trade and technology confrontation with the West.
None of that is evidence that China possesses secret knowledge of some imminent new war - as I stated, there's more than enough current wars. You have taken one of the known causes of rising tungsten prices, asked “why?”, and treated your preferred answer as though it had been demonstrated. A state using a strategic resource strategically is not a mysterious signal, it is policy happening in plain sight.
There's far more luminous signals for any impending Chinese (or, indeed, other) militarism than tungsten.
The most recent Odd Lots podcast episode [1] explored this topic further. I quite enjoyed it.
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-03/why-tungs...