fxtentacle 6 hours ago

I feel like those articles all look at the wrong aspect: once AI companies are forced to compete on price (i.e. in 6 months), then Google’s TPU is going to be a massive advantage that’s almost impossible for Amazon or Microsoft to replace.

  • esperent 6 hours ago

    > i.e. in 6 months

    Why are Amazon or Microsoft going to be forced to compete on cost in six months?

    • datadrivenangel 5 hours ago

      If the big cloud players slowly agree to compete on price then that means that OpenAI and Anthropic are suddenly in a much weaker negotiating position.

  • spwa4 5 hours ago

    Google has never competed on having a price advantage.

  • Yizahi 1 hour ago

    Even bigger advantage Google has, in addition to TPUs and other stuff, is bundling. Bundle paid AI tiers with other products and entice users with clever pricing tiers, and you're golden. In fact this is what Google already does. Cheapest paid AI tier - 4$ and you also get two hundred gigs of cloud storage and photo backup and office and stuff. You want more storage - sure we have that, plus some higher AI usage limits on top of that, or maybe you want average storage but much more AI tokens? We have that too. Family packs? Sure. And so on. OpenAI doesn't have a photo editor or a music streaming or or funny reels network to bundle their expensive AI with.

eddythompson80 9 hours ago

Don’t know about catching up to AWS, but given the state of Azure, anyone with enough data center investment should be able to overtake it.

  • pjmlp 7 hours ago

    Azure secret juice are Microsoft shops.

    When you are already into some combination of Office, Windows desktops, Active Directory, .NET, SQL Server, Github Copilot, then Azure feels like the natural cloud transition.

    • jojobas 6 hours ago

      Office, Windows and SQL server get some hate now and then but are nowhere near as buggy as Azure.

      • pjmlp 5 hours ago

        All cloud vendors are buggy, and if you aren't paying enough there are only bots to talk to.

        • TitaRusell 2 hours ago

          If you want cheap that's what you get. Service costs money.

          Like how my local supermarket prefers hiring teenagers.

          • pjmlp 42 minutes ago

            Depending on your wallet size, all cloud services are great,

    • eddythompson80 6 hours ago

      Azure is exceptionally broken though. It only exists for those who don’t want to put all their eggs in the Amazon basket, and because Microsoft has an old relationship with many large enterprises and is good at selling to them. No body is picking azure based on a technical reason as all services are horrific to use.

      • pjmlp 5 hours ago

        Amazon is hardly anything amazing.

        I much rather deal with Azure than the complexity maze of AWS products, IAM configurations, primitive Web based IDE tooling and shell.

        Amazon would never had come up with something like VSCode, which was born as the Azure Web IDE.

quanto 5 hours ago

> Only Nvidia currently rivalled Google’s combination of AI hardware and integrated chip software, he added.

Does the phrasing imply that Google sees itself as #1 and Nvidia as a close #2 that may rival its greatness? not to mention other big contenders.

_pdp_ 6 hours ago

In a highly competitive markets, consumers win.

  • esperent 6 hours ago

    Unless that market causes you to lose your job, of course. Or unless you want to buy RAM or a new graphics card. Or unless you are an artist, or a translator, or...

    But sure, if you want to buy AI tokens, you win.

ViktorRay 12 hours ago

Whenever I read about how powerful these companies are, it sends chills down my spine.

  • morkalork 11 hours ago

    A new life awaits you in the Off-world colonies

  • bigyabai 11 hours ago

    AdSense is the one that people underestimate. It's a piranha pool of liquid cash, billions-scale impressions and near global outreach. Any sane nation would have banned it decades ago, unless it was propping up a global influence campaign for their government.

    • parineum 11 hours ago

      > Any sane nation would have banned it decades ago

      Why?

      • bigyabai 11 hours ago

        AdSense uses a sealed-bid auction system with arbitrary number of lots that Google controls. It's a FOMO market driven by artificial scarcity, and since Google contractually forbids AdSense-enabled websites from using competing services, it forces ad buyers to go through their closed, controlled system.

        • SilverElfin 9 hours ago

          They forbid those websites from using competitors? Isn’t that blatantly illegal? I guess it’s not actually illegal until they lose a court case for antitrust.

        • streptomycin 9 hours ago

          But in practice, nobody (well, nobody making lots of ad revenue from their website) uses AdSense exclusively. Most don't even use it at all - AdX is better as a header bidding fallback than AdSense. But those who do use AdSense as a fallback are using it in competition with many other ad networks.

      • echelon 10 hours ago

        Google owns 92% of all "URL bars".

        They turned this into "search".

        Every brand or product has to competitively bid for its own identity in a monopoly competitive bidding market.

        It's downright evil.

        Look at Google's AI rivals having to spend hundreds of millions just so customers can find them. Google Anthropic or OpenAI and see what you get.

        The next admin needs to break Google up horizontally (not vertically) into competing browsers, clouds, and search products. They all need to fight. Healthy capitalism is fiercely competitive. Not whatever this invasive species that preys on everything else is.

        They also need to make it illegal to place ads for registered trademarks. The EU should get in on that too.

        • Aerroon 10 hours ago

          >The next admin needs to break Google up horizontally (not vertically) into competing browsers, clouds, and search products. They all need to fight. Healthy capitalism is fiercely competitive. Not whatever this invasive species that preys on everything else is.

          That sounds great if you're rich and can afford to pay for all the million subscriptions that will pop up to replace what Google offers.

          Google offers an insane amount of value to people for free: YouTube, Android, Google Search, Trends, Scholar, Maps, Chrome, Translate, Gmail. These would all be paid subscription products without adsense (or some equivalent). And as paid products they would get the typical subscription enshittification over time.

          Also, on the topic of AI: didn't the transformers research paper come from Google? In an alternate world that would've been a trade secret locked away inside Google.

      • majormajor 10 hours ago

        "Possibility for abuse" seems like the right reason here. Does the benefiting of reducing a specific possibility of abuse outweigh the cost of an intervention? And here in particular, is there much cost to the intervention other than just shifting the money distribution from a zero-sum advertising arms race from one player to several?

        I frequently see calls to not intervene if there's not bulletproof evidence of existing abuse, but why wait? Would you want Google to own a bunch of nuclear missiles just because they might not have misused them yet?

    • pixelpoet 11 hours ago

      I am deeply saddened that it was developed by the hero of modern rendering, Eric Veach.

    • j16sdiz 10 hours ago

      I am more concern with how they make scam much less detectable.

      You can hyper-target your ad or scam to vulnerable individual.

      Unlike traditional media, like newspaper, you can post an ad with no visibility outside your target group -- which is hard to discover.

      The report button is just some generic "second look" and automation within the same organization, there are no oversight.

  • SilverElfin 10 hours ago

    Yep. They can make every mistake imaginable and not work as hard but still win. It’s the power of concentrated capital and monopolistic behavior and what people call “moats” but really is just an unfair advantage. Why should Google or Apple be allowed to copy everyone’s AI tech and just win because of distribution through Chrome or iPhones?

    We need new antitrust laws and heavy taxes just on the megacorps worth $500B or more. And aggressive enforcement.

    • georgemcbay 10 hours ago

      Not that I'm opposed to new laws, but just having enforcement of the laws we already have would go a long way to fixing the problems.

      The problem is how to get to the point where there is enforcement.

      It definitely isn't going to happen with Republicans in power, and it also isn't a sure thing with Democrats in power either.

      Lina Khan was a good start for a bit there, but she certainly didn't have universal Dem support. Establishment Democrats are going to have to grow a spine and tell the Reid Hoffmanesque donor class to get fucked.

      • SilverElfin 9 hours ago

        The current set of laws lead to the current situation in my opinion. Enforcement within the current laws means a court case that will take years and span multiple administrations, which gives it a lot of time to be killed. It doesn’t provide enough authority to immediately bring enforcement actions.

      • keeda 8 hours ago

        I will preface by saying that someone with Lina Khan is sorely needed; Big Tech and other monopolies have gotten way too Big and seriously need to be reined in.

        That said, from all the informed takes I've seen, Lina Khan was seriously... flawed (putting it charitably) in her strategy and tactics. To the extent that some observers wondered if she was deliberately sabotaging the agency just to highlight the need for new, more effective laws. She did have a novel theory of consumer harm, but that requires new legislation to enforce. Instead the way she went about it -- including by flouting due process -- was extremely counter-productive.

        That was a big reason she was neither very effective in her goals (other than creating a lot of noise) nor have high political support from any side.

        • georgemcbay 6 hours ago

          Her lack of political support from certain factions on the Democratic side was obviously because the big donors involved in the VC world want the option to continue to unload the startups they've invested in off as acquisitions to google, microsoft, et al.

          Nothing noble about that stance, that's continuing to feed the Big Tech monster.

          They are very much part of the problem that needs to be solved and they didn't like that she was starting to push for the solutions.

    • jfrbfbreudh 10 hours ago

      You mean, the inventor of the transformer technology that made ChatGPT possible, is copying ChatGPT’s technology?

      • SilverElfin 9 hours ago

        Gemini is a copy of ChatGPT. And ChatGPT was a product invented on top of many previous ideas. The fact that one paper among many was written at Google isn’t relevant to my point.

        Google entered the competition in AI products late. And now they will use their power unfairly to try and make it win. When they bundle an AI Chatbot into their existing contracts for Google workspace, they are competing unfairly. When the Chrome browser steers you towards Google properties by default, they are competing unfairly. Etc. Those unfair monopolistic actions let them come into the market years late with a viable competitor to ChatGPT or other products.

        And let’s not give them too much credit for transformers. A handful of researchers were paid by Google while they came up with that paper. Google didn’t really do anything to push for it and neither Google leaders nor shareholders cared much about it at the time. Not to mention, transformers themselves were just a continuation of other prior steps in ML, from what I’ve read.

        • nl 8 hours ago

          Let's not give too much credit to Bell Labs. A handful of researchers were paid to develop transistors and...

          That's exactly how fundamental research works.

          Transformers is possibly the most significant advancement in machine learning since AlexNet.

          Bundling products is valid but different critism.

        • hnav 8 hours ago

          google literally had two divisions doing ai research. It is (was) risk averse and had its hand forced by the runaway success of oai.

    • nl 8 hours ago

      There are many valid criticisms of Google, but copying AI tech isn't one of them.

      • SilverElfin 6 hours ago

        Everything it’s building now - Gemini in its various forms, and all the other AI products - are copies of other products. If they weren’t Google but another startup with the same products, they would be irrelevant and ignored. It’s their capital and anticompetitive practices that let them get away with missteps that no one else can survive.

  • i_love_retros 10 hours ago

    Collectively we have the power to do something about it if enough people care to. It's called democratic socialism.

    https://www.dsausa.org/

    • TulliusCicero 6 hours ago

      DSA would be a great org if they could fix their foreign policy takes.

      Doing the whole "it's both sides, really" thing after Russia invaded Ukraine just makes them look like useful idiots.

  • tt24 10 hours ago

    Saying this about a compute rental service is hilarious

    They have the power to do what exactly? Sell you some EC2 instances at reasonable prices? lol

    There’s organizations that have the power to openly kidnap and execute people and we’re being melodramatic about a few buildings with computers in them

    • fnordpiglet 9 hours ago

      When their customers start using those buildings with computers in them to autonomously determine who to kidnap and execute, I suspect you might understand their point. I’d also note we are one refusal away from the US president declaring DPA control over frontier model providers and their infrastructure a national defense necessity and under his personal control.

      • tt24 7 hours ago

        Then complain about the US president forcing Microsoft to do X rather than just preemptively criticizing Microsoft for doing nothing

    • 100ms 9 hours ago

      That's not an ideal tone for here. From my perspective the most incredible thing is the concentration of IO. I might like at some point for elements of my computer usage to remain private, it would be nice if that ability were preserved. A bit hard to accomplish when 1 out of 4 bits processed globally all run through the same network

    • delbronski 5 hours ago

      Wasn’t it just a few months ago that a big tech CEO used his powers to gain access to all the US government data he wanted? Did you forget that already?

      Did you see any clips from Trumps inauguration? Weren’t the CEOs of these big tech companies sitting right behind him?

      Shall we even talk about Palantir?

      I think it’s pretty obvious what the power of these companies are. You have to have your head pretty deep in the tech hole to think this is just about fair ec2 pricing. What I’d do to have that kind of ignorance again.

    • modo_mario 3 hours ago

      >There’s organizations that have the power to openly kidnap and execute people and...

      Like banana companies?

  • raincole 9 hours ago

    Wait until you learn what governments are.

    • applfanboysbgon 9 hours ago

      Governments are companies that have accountability to the public, wherein the public has direct influence over their decisionmaking, unlike regular corporations where people have no influence whatsoever (without lobbying the government to regulate them, anyways).

      To the extent that governments work against the people, it is largely because people in some countries are collectively very stupid and willingly support such governments.

      • victorbjorklund 6 hours ago

        oh, yes, Trump famous for being held accountable.

        • applfanboysbgon 1 hour ago

          He is politically accountable. The majority of the voting populace voted him back in and also voted for a majority of legislators whose central policy was worshipping the ground on which he stands. America is getting exactly what its people voted for, if you have a problem with that you have a problem with democracy itself.

          • victorbjorklund 21 minutes ago

            In what way? What will happen to him? As far as I know, he is not standing for a re-election anyway, so exactly zero consequences for him.

    • tt24 7 hours ago

      Seriously

      I don’t understand how this is even a remote comparison lol

      If we’re worried about power there are other much scarier organizations to criticize first

      • TitaRusell 2 hours ago

        I am worried about these batshit insane billionaire tech bros. They are already in the White House.

joe_mamba 11 hours ago

Whoever controls the spice , controls the universe.

  • charlie0 11 hours ago

    And the spice must flow

siren2026 9 hours ago

I pray for Google to completely fail the pivot to AI. We don't need another surveillance capitalism company using AI to make us even dumber and more addicted to screens.

I so hope that Google goes down. (And I pray the same for Facebook and a couple others).

  • bitpush 8 hours ago

    Huh? Why are you railing against Google? Because of YouTube? How's Google Search making you addicted to screens.

    At this rate, you'll hate Apple for making iPhones so damn good, or Starlink for giving really good internet access.

    You line of thinking is - gosh, these companies are providing an excellent service, and I hate them for that?

    • siren2026 7 hours ago

      The incentive for those Adtech is to keep you hooked as long as possible so they can sell you more ads, and making you lose your only real currency in life: time.

      The incentive for Apple or Microsoft is to make a good product that you will gladly pay for. This is very different.

      A good restaurant makes an excellent product bit it doesn't mean that I will spend 5 hours there.

      • abenga 6 hours ago

        I use Google products. Between YouTube premium and uBlock origin, I don't really see any ads at all.

        • pixelbro 1 hour ago

          Google Analytics has >80% market share. Most of the websites you visit are helping them build a profile of everything you do on the internet with the goal of selling targeted advertisement. That is their business, it's what pays for everything else they do. I think that is what is meant by surveillance capitalism.

irishcoffee 11 hours ago

I’ve always thought “man it would have been a great job selling shovels and pickaxes during the gold rush” back in the day.”

I know, I know, it’s really hard having these insights. We all have our crosses to bear. <giggling emoji>

  • jeffbee 11 hours ago

    The "picks and shovels" people from the dotcom days all went broke. The stuff they had convinced themselves and their investors was crucial turned out to be not important.

    • newsclues 11 hours ago

      Working out for nvidia right now

      • ohNoe5 11 hours ago

        Hardware is important to operation of computers and software as we know them

        A bunch of config management DSL startups, and web scale data storage solutions, not so much

        • irishcoffee 10 hours ago

          Right, and Google owns 25% of the hardware.

    • cyberax 10 hours ago

      Cisco is doing great. Sun got acquired by Oracle. Oracle itself is also fine (apart from it is Oracle). Akamai is doing fine.

      From the pure software side, Macromedia got acquired. RedHat was doing fine before IBM gobbled it up. But I honestly can't remember any other "picks and shovels" software companies from pre-dotcom.

      • warkdarrior 10 hours ago

        Microsoft - doing fine

        Netscape - dead (server) and/or dying (Mozilla)

        Intel - almost dead

        Palm - dead

        Qualcomm - still around

        • nerdsniper 10 hours ago

          INTC shot up >300% in the past 8 months and is now at its highest stock price ever, fwiw.

        • cyberax 10 hours ago

          I guess Netscape counts. Palm produced devices, so it was not really picks&shovels.

          Who else? Borland quietly withered away, but it had never been focused on tools specifically for the Internet.

      • jeffbee 10 hours ago

        The glass-in-the-ground people went spectacularly broke. I also suggest you look up the stock price chart for JDSU. On the software side, Ariba and Commerce One.

        • cyberax 5 hours ago

          Yeah, hardware companies got hit hard. But dotcom also coincided with the de-industrialization era, with manufacturing moving out of the US, with a double whammy of commodization. So it's hard to disentangle the causes.

          And then I can't really remember many Internet-focused software pick&shovels companies from that era. I was only starting my professional career at that time, though.

      • shellwizard 10 hours ago

        3Com / US Robotics - dead

        Nortel - dead

        Global crossing - dead

    • TitaRusell 2 hours ago

      Nobody actually goes broke anymore man. They'll still be multi millionaires. They will still have a contact list. Hell you will receive a pardon if it comes to that.

      It's actually really hard for the aristocracy to end up in a Florida trailer park.

    • GuB-42 1 hour ago

      I guess they failed at the "during the gold rush" part.

      Selling picks and shovels after the gold rush is a terrible idea.

  • kirubakaran 9 hours ago

    Even the original gold rush pickaxe guy Sam Brannan went broke, and he practically had a monopoly on pickaxes by buying up the entire supply: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_Brannan

    • khuey 9 hours ago

      TIL who Brannan Street in SF is named after.

    • nadermx 5 hours ago

      Went broke "Following the divorce, he became a brewer and developed a problem with alcohol."

bushbaba 7 hours ago

Google banked on "Edge" for IoT as well, prior to that it was their network edge is better use them from compute. It's a failed strategy that won't work this time either.

  • boulos 7 hours ago

    That's not the "edge" in the title. It means competitive advantage in this case.