Dutch traders in the Netherlands did this in the 17th century only they used newspapers.
Being the first to know about a storm in the Baltic or another war between France and Spain could be very lucrative indeed.
I'm not a fan of the betting side of prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket, but I do find the "scientific" side of them interesting.
Especially seeing if "wisdom of the crowd" or "superforecaster" theories are validated and the possibility of using these market probabilities as inputs in broader strategies.
It just seems like more selective odds betting, aka gambling, dressed up in financial jargon.
Dutch traders in the Netherlands did this in the 17th century only they used newspapers. Being the first to know about a storm in the Baltic or another war between France and Spain could be very lucrative indeed.
This feels like a net negative for society.
Because it is!
I'm not a fan of the betting side of prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket, but I do find the "scientific" side of them interesting.
Especially seeing if "wisdom of the crowd" or "superforecaster" theories are validated and the possibility of using these market probabilities as inputs in broader strategies.
I want to short Kalshi so bad but I know that the market can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent
Smells like the next SBF case.